In one of the last parts of our series on the upcoming elections in Nigeria, we review the presidential election outlook for each of Nigeria’s thirty-six states along with its Federal Capital Territory, arraigned by region. In accompaniment to each individual state write-up, we are releasing our final state-by-state ratings for the presidential election.
The explainer summaries for our ratings will also come with the state’s 2019 presidential election result to provide recent political context, the registered voter total for a sense of the state’s relative impact, and the state’s YIAGA Election Manipulation Index risk rating to communicate the chance of electoral malpractice.
North-West
After two decades of voting for Buhari, the North-West is now competitive. Without Buhari on the ballot and with an unpopular administration, the APC has hemorrhaged support here to the benefit of Abubakar. However, Tinubu is still backed by most of the region’s officeholders and NNPP nominee Rabiu Kwankwaso has an impactful following in several northwestern states. This vote split helps Obi, who has next to no northwestern support outside of ethnic minority-heavy, predominantly Christian areas like Southern Kaduna State and some neighborhoods in the city of Kano.
Jigawa State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+45.63%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,351,298
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: In a similar story to much of the core North, Jigawa was among the safest of APC states in 2019 but has now become very competitive. After twenty years of voting for Buhari, deadly insecurity and one of the highest unemployment rates in the country have eroded APC support. As a northerner, Abubakar has gained a foothold here but Kwankwaso has a substantial base here that could cut into Abubakar and Tinubu vote totals. On the other hand, the Obi vote is expected to be negligible in Jigawa with its very low Christian population.
Rating: TOSSUP — It is not clear who will ultimately win Jigawa State; Tinubu and Abubakar both have a strong case with influential campaign surrogates. In any case, Kwankwaso will be important as his expected 10-25% vote share will hurt Tinubu and Abubakar to the benefit of Obi, who will not reach near 25% here.
Kaduna State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+20.67%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 4,335,208
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Unlike the other six states of the North-West, Kaduna State has a large Christian community that comprises about half the state’s population. In terms of electoral politics, Kaduna demographics has made it vote more like a state in the North-Central or North-East, with its Muslim, mostly Hausa-Fulani population voting for the APC while its Christian, primarily-ethnic minority population voting for the PDP. However, Abubakar has made significant inroads into that Muslim demographic while Kwankwaso has non-insignificant support in the group as well. Conversely, Abubakar has lost ground among the state’s Christians as a part of the wider Northern Christian wave for Obi. All in all, Kaduna is probably the only state in the entire nation where the top four candidates will all gain a significant portion (over 10%) of the vote.
Rating: TOSSUP — Kaduna State is sometimes seen as a microcosm of the nation and, like the country, it is hard to predict who will win. The top three candidates will expect a victory here while all four prominent candidates have a chance to reach 25%, but Kwankwaso will probably fall short.
Kano State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+56.74%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 5,921,370
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: With the second largest electorate in the nation, Kano State is vital for any prospective victor. Doing well here has been the core of Buhari’s two victories but with Tinubu facing two northern opponents and the scandal-plagued APC governor unpopular, keeping the seats in APC hands will be difficult. On the other hand, Kwankwaso is a force in the state; from his two stints as governor, Kwankwaso has consolidated a loyal support base—called the Kwankwasiyya. Although he no longer has the backing of one of the two major parties, his appeal in Kano should not be underestimated. Like in the other overwhelmingly-Muslim northwestern states, Obi is unlikely to reach the 25% threshold but he may do a bit better here due to its urban non-indigene population. Abubakar is also not likely to obtain 25%, but has a better chance with the backing of former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau—a longtime Kwankwaso foe.
Rating: LEAN KWANKWASO — Kano is the only state we are predicting not to be won by a major contender. Kwankwaso’s longtime base here should finally carry him over the line but a history of electoral malpractice by the ruling APC and a campaign wracked by violence will make it difficult. Both Kwankwaso and Tinubu will be confident of 25% here while Abubakar and Obi have an uphill climb towards the benchmark.
Katsina State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+59.41%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 3,516,719
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Buhari has never received under 70% in his home state of Katsina, but rampant insecurity and a northern PDP nominee has pushed the state into competitiveness much like Jigawa. This benefits Abubakar and Kwankwaso while Obi is not expected to compete here.
Rating: LEAN TINUBU — Despite the violence, we expect Katsina to slightly favour Tinubu. With a strong APC support base and Buhari onside, it is difficult to see Tinubu losing the state but it is possible. In any case, Abubakar will probably breach the 25% threshold while Kwankwaso and Obi will fall short.
Kebbi State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+56.47%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,032,041
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Kebbi is yet another northwestern state that has voted strongly for Buhari for the past 20 years but is now wracked by violence and economic turmoil. To make matters worse for Tinubu, the state APC tore itself apart in an internal crisis last year that led two notable Senators into the PDP, where they now support Abubakar.
Rating: LEAN ABUBAKAR — The divides within the Kebbi State APC have provided an opening for Abubakar and handed him important allies. With this new context, we believe Abubakar will narrowly win the state with Tinubu coming in second, likely with well over 25% while we expect Kwankwaso and Obi to fall short of the 25% target.
Sokoto State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+14.77%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,032,041
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Unlike most of the rest of the North-West, Sokoto State already had a strong PDP base before Buhari became unpopular in the region as it was the closest northwestern state in the 2019 presidential election. Largely due to Governor Aminu Tambuwal (PDP), Abubakar greatly narrowed buhari’s margin of victory here compared to 2015 and is now in a good position to win the state this year. Tinubu, who is likely coming second, is not without his own prominent Sokoto backers but they do not carry the electoral weight of the incumbent governor.
Rating: LIKELY ABUBAKAR — Sokoto is likely to be Abubakar’s easiest pickup in the North-West; with the governor’s backing and a solid base, his gains among northwestern voters have only cemented our decision to rate the state as likely to go to the PDP nominee. Tinubu will come second, likely with well over 25% while we expect Kwankwaso and Obi to fall short of the 25% target.
Zamfara State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+54.16%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,926,870
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Zamfara has had a rough four years; with terrorists controlling large swaths of the state, monthly mass kidnappings, and regular massacres, nowhere else in the region has been as decimated by recent violence. These tragedies have put a massive dent in APC support here but, as polling has shown, low turnout benefits the APC and the large number of Zamfarans that have fled their homes will almost definitely lead to lower turnout.
Rating: LEAN TINUBU — Despite the violence, we expect Zamfara to slightly favour Tinubu. With a strong APC base and low turnout expected, it is difficult to see Abubakar winning the state but still possible. In any case, Kwankwaso will be important as his expected 5-10% vote share will hurt Tinubu and Abubakar to the benefit of Obi, who will not reach near 25% here.
North-East
Similar to its neighbor to the west, the North-East is now very competitive after years of Buhari loyalty. But here, Abubakar is doing even better in some areas as it is his home region. However, Tinubu is likely to hold Borno and Yobe states due to the influence of his running mate Kashim Shettima while Obi is competing for the votes of the significant Christian minority in the zone.
Adamawa State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+3.96%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,196,566
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: As one of Nigeria’s most ethnically diverse states, it is difficult to predict Adamawa’s voting intentions based on ethnicity. But religion also plays a key role in the state’s politics, as a large portion of the state’s population is Christian. Christians in the North have been extensively targeted by Obi as Tinubu overlooked Northern Christians in his search for a running mate while an Abubakar victory would be ‘Muslim self-succession.’ Thus Obi has a foothold here that he lacks in some other Northern states; however, Adamawa is also Abubakar’s home state and his support has greatly risen among the majority Muslim community in the North compared to 2019. Due to this rise, Tinubu is dropping significantly compared to Buhari’s numbers.
Rating: SAFE ABUBAKAR — Despite the close 2019 election, we are rating Adamawa as the only Northern state to be safely Abubakar’s. The home state boost will likely lessen the severity of indigenous Christian voters switching to Obi while simultaneously amplifying the amount of formerly Buhari-supporting Muslims that switch to the PDP nominee. Both Obi and Tinubu will still be pushing for the all-important 25% here.
Bauchi State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+57.52%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,749,268
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Although Buhari easily won Bauchi in 2019, its downballot elections were far more competitive as the PDP won several House of Representatives seats and the party gubernatorial nominee, Bala Muhammad, unseated the incumbent APC governor. Muhammad briefly broke with Abubakar in late 2022, but they reconciled and now he is aligned behind the party flagbearer. Regardless of internal disputes, Abubakar’s Northern rise in support has clearly manifested in Bauchi with the Nextier poll on rural communities showing him at 50% in Bauchi and Gombe states. Despite notable defections, Tinubu and the state APC still have several prominent figures which will likely help him retain at least a portion of Buhari’s former support base. Kwankwaso and Obi will battle for third place with Kwankwaso backed by his network in the state while Obi is boosted by the state’s indigenous Christian minority.
Rating: LIKELY ABUBAKAR — Despite Buhari’s substantial win in 2019, Bauchi is one of several northern states that are now leaning towards Abubakar. The PDP surge in the North (especially the North-East), has manifested strongly in Bauchi—a state that already occasionally voted for the party. Tinubu will likely come second, surpassing 25% while Kwankwaso and Obi are likely to fall short of that percentage.
Borno State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+83.14%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,513,281
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Despite several other formerly safe APC states becoming competitive due to Abubakar’s momentum across the North, nothing indicates a similar pattern in Borno. Buoyed by his running mate—former Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima, Tinubu appears to be holding strong in the state despite some Abubakar gains. Important to note is the large portion of the state’s electorate still voting in IDP camps due to the Boko Haram insurgency; opposition parties have long criticized the camps’ electoral processes as open to manipulation by the APC. Borno has a relatively low indigenous Christian population (<10-15%), so Obi is unlikely to gain a large vote share while the NNPP is optimistic due to Kwankwaso’s charitable donations during the height of the Boko Haram crisis in the mid-2010s.
Rating: SAFE TINUBU — Shettima should help Tinubu to a straightforward victory, so we are rating Borno as safe for Tinubu. While his running mate’s home state boost will carry Tinubu to a win, it will not preclude a decline compared to Buhari’s numbers; Abubakar’s overall rise among northern voters may get him over 25% while Kwankwaso and Obi are likely to fall short of that percentage.
Gombe State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+47.72%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,575,794
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Low Risk
Summary: Although the APC was successful in Gombe in 2019—gaining the governorship and several legislative seats, Abubakar’s burgeoning Northern support is strong in the area with the Nextier poll on rural communities showing him at 50% in Gombe and Bauchi states. Tinubu and the state APC still have prominent politicians, like incumbent Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya, who should help him retain some of Buhari’s former support base. Obi could play a role as he is competitive in the race for the votes of the state’s ethnic minority communities in the Christian-majority southern region. Similarly, the NNPP has expanded in Gombe over the last few months so Kwankwaso could hope for a significant performance.
Rating: LIKELY ABUBAKAR — Despite Buhari’s large win in 2019, Gombe is one of several northern states that are now leaning towards Abubakar. Tinubu will come second, breaching 25% while Obi could also reach the threshold.
Taraba State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+6.99%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,022,374
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Although Taraba has always voted for the PDP in presidential races, the state has been very competitive in recent elections and this year is no different. Taraba has a much larger Christian population than Adamawa and Abubakar will not get a home state boost here, implying that Obi could win based on his significant Northern Christian support. Strengthening his position further, Obi received the endorsement of T.Y. Danjuma—a longtime military and political figure with immense influence within the state’s large ethnic Jukun community. However, Abubakar has retained some Christian support and gained Muslim support compared to 2019. Lastly, APC positioning has been greatly hurt by the nomination of an all-Muslim ticket and Abubakar gains among Northern Muslim voters in addition to a prolonged state party crisis.
Rating: LEAN ABUBAKAR — Despite Obi’s strength among Northern Christians, we are giving the advantage to Abubakar. The combination of his rising support from Northern Muslim and the remnants of Christian PDP support should carry him over the line. Both Obi and Tinubu are likely to reach 25% as they challenge for the top place.
Yobe State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+79.93%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,485,146
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: The outlook on Yobe State is much like that for its neighbor, Borno, as one of the few Northern states to strongly stick by the APC. Already regularly giving APC candidates 80-90% of the vote, Shettima has helped Tinubu hold most of this base; Shettima is an ethnic Kanuri and Yobe has a large ethnic Kanuri population. However, these factors have not completely stemmed the rise in northern support that Abubakar has received. Yobe has a relatively low Christian population, so Obi is unlikely to gain a large vote share.
Rating: LIKELY TINUBU — Shettima should help Tinubu to a straightforward victory, but that effect will not be as strong as in Borno so we are putting the state at likely for Tinubu. Abubakar’s overall rise among northern voters should get him over 25% while Obi and Kwankwaso are likely to fall well short of that percentage.
North-Central
Like the other two Northern zones, the North-Central is very closely contested but unlike its northern counterparts, competitiveness is not unusual for the region. In fact, the ethnically and religiously diverse zone has been a bellwether in presidential elections with it voting for the overall winner in every single presidential election. In this contest, the region is again divided with Obi and Abubakar mainly targeting heavily Christian areas while Abubakar and Tinubu target mostly-Muslim areas.
Benue State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+1.25%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,777,727
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: In a theme that will be echoed throughout the North for Obi, his support is largely tied to the percentage of Christians in each Northern state. Since Benue is the only Northern state that is overwhelmingly Christian (>90%), Obi would have a strong chance here even if the state chapters of both the APC and PDP were not decimated by infighting. APC struggles in the state stem from longstanding internal state party disputes, but Tinubu is not helped by Buhari’s unpopularity amid deadly insecurity. For Abubakar, he is hurt by the vitriolic opposition of Governor Samuel Ortom (PDP)—a member of the anti-Abubakar G5 group who has endorsed Obi.
Rating: LIKELY OBI — Despite Abubakar’s best efforts, the combination of Ortom’s opposition and Obi’s strength among northern Christians makes the state likely to go for the Labour Party. While Abubakar will probably breach 25% without difficulty, it is an open question if Tinubu will reach the same goal as support for the Benue APC has significantly declined since Buhari won the state in 2015.
Federal Capital Territory
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+25.42%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,570,307
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Low Risk
Summary: In 2019, Abubakar’s 25% margin in the FCT was his largest win in the North with the margin being 21% larger than Abubakar’s margin of victory in his home state of Adamawa. That result was a clear representation of how unique FCT politics is compared to the rest of the North, in the same way that the territory (especially its urban area) is extremely unique in general. Built in the late twentieth century around the planned capital city of Abuja, the FCT is the only Nigerian subdivision where indigenous ethnic groups are a substantial minority with non-indigenes making up the majority of the population due to decades of migration to the city. This ethnic makeup precludes a straightforward categorization of the territory based on ethnic identity politics, thus the urban dominance of Abuja becomes an important factor and supports Obi’s campaign, which is strong with urban voters. Returning to ethnic politics, the territory’s diversity could led to counteracting demographic trends: indigenous Christian voters coupled with the significant population of non-indigenes originally from the Obi-supporting South-East and South-South will boost Obi but conversely, the indigenous Muslim community in addition to non-indigenes originally from the contested North and Tinubu-backing South-West will boost Tinubu and Abubakar.
Rating: LEAN OBI — The urban-dominated population of the FCT is perfect for Obi’s campaign but the territory has been a PDP stronghold for a long time and Abubakar will hope to gain support among both indigenous and non-indigenous Northern Muslim voters. Overall, we give the narrow advantage in the territory to Obi but expect both Tinubu and Abubakar to be competitive here.
Kogi State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+12.99%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,932,654
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Nicknamed “The Confluence State,” Kogi is aptly a mix of a dozen major ethnic groups. This combination of voting blocs has led Kogi to be a regularly competitive state, even being a bellwether as its winner has won the wider presidential election in every race since 1999. Today, the state governor, Yahaya Bello (APC), is one of the main variables when looking at how Kogi will vote. Bello—an immensely controversial figure accused of corruption, electoral violence, and propagating anti-science fallacies—controls the state APC and is strongly backing Tinubu. Another boost for the APC is the state’s large Yoruba population, in which Tinubu has longtime allies who have become key campaign tools in the state. However, Abubakar also has prominent campaigners from his allies in the state and Obi’s Northern Christian strength has helped him gain a foothold in Kogi.
Rating: TOSSUP — The converging ethnic and religious demographics of Kogi State. Strengthened safeguards against electoral fraud may make the APC’s job more difficult; it is unlikely that Tinubu will “win” a LGA with over 110,000 votes compared to less than 200 votes for his opponents as happened in the 2019 gubernatorial election. However, the APC has genuine support in the state that can match Abubakar’s base. All three candidates will be confident of reaching 25% of the vote.
Kwara State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+37.16%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,695,927
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Kwara State is unique as it is the only Yoruba-majority state to be in the North or overwhelmingly Muslim (>70%). This distinctive identity greatly helps Tinubu, as he himself is a Yoruba Muslim. In addition to cultural ties, the Tinubu campaign has the backing of most state elected officials. The Kwara APC swept into power in the state’s 2019 elections on the back of a popular movement—the Ó Tó Gẹ́ campaign—that ended the longtime preeminence of then-Senate President Bukola Saraki (PDP), even defeating Saraki in his district. However, a lot has changed since 2019, with the state APC now feuding and Saraki returning in hopes of reclaiming his influence by delivering the state to Abubakar.
Rating: LIKELY TINUBU — Tinubu has both religious and ethnic sentiment on his side in Kwara along with several longtime allied politicians; however, the divisions of the state APC and unknown positioning of the state PDP leads us to not completely favour Tinubu. It is unknown if Obi can leverage urban and Christian support or Abubakar can use Saraki’s backing to get to 25% but it could prove difficult, especially for Abubakar.
Nasarawa State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+1.05%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,899,244
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Like other states in the North-Central, Nasarawa’s diversity has led to an immensely competitive political history that carried on into this election. Four years ago, Buhari won the state for the first time after four prior second places; however, that was back when the state APC was united and not in the state of crisis it has been in for the past year. Alternatively, the Nasarawa PDP has resolved the crisis it was in back in 2019 and are keen to win the state back. However, it must be noted that the state is roughly evenly split between Muslims and Christians in addition to sharing a border with the city of Abuja in the FCT; Obi strength among Northern Christians and urban voters could greatly help him in Nasarawa.
Rating: TOSSUP — Nasarawa is one of three tossup states in the North-Central and like the other two, its diverse electorate and competitive political history has precluded clear categorization by this outlet. However, we can predict that all three major candidates have a strong likelihood of reaching the vital 25% threshold.
Niger State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+46.29%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,698,344
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Mirroring the wider North-Central, Niger State voted PDP for most of its history until 2015 when it switched to Buhari and his APC. However, in recent years, Niger has become an epicentre of deadly banditry and terrorist expansion which has likely eroded APC support here. However, Tinubu still boasts the support of most of the state’s officeholders. For his part, Abubakar has the backing of many former officeholders from the state’s time as a PDP stronghold in the 2000s. Both are mainly competing for the vote of the state’s Muslim majority, as Obi seems to have gained a solid foothold among Northern Christian voters along with those in large urban areas.
Rating: TOSSUP — Like other tossups in the North-Central, Niger State has too many countervailing factors for us to clearly make a prediction. We can state that Tinubu and Abubakar will carry over 25% but it is not clear for Obi.
Plateau State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+7.74%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,789,528
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Although Plateau State has always voted for PDP presidential nominees, it has recently been competitive and appears to be continuing that streak in this election. A state already beset by ethno-religious divides, conditions have only worsened during the Buhari administration as farmer-herder conflict has grown into near-constant tit-for-tat violence. Most farming communities are made up of the state’s majority of smaller Christian ethnicities like the Berom and Tarok, while most herdsmen are ethnically Fulani, like Buhari. These ethnic tensions have significantly hurt Abubakar’s chances to retain the state, as he’s also an ethnic Fulani and many traditionally PDP-voting Christians fear the implications of another government led by a Fulani Muslim. This would be good news for Tinubu, whose campaign council is led by the state governor—a prominent APC Christian figure; however, the nomination of a Muslim-Muslim ticket has prevented the APC from capitalizing on an up for grabs Christian electorate, and instead opened the doors for Obi. As the only Christian major candidate, Obi is aided by religious sentiment and furthermore he just does not carry the baggage of the other two candidates and has successfully disseminated his message that he would bring change to the nation. His strength among online urban youth has also helped him in the large city of Jos and Plateau is one of the few northern states where Obi has important endorsements. However, it must be noted that Plateau has a significant Northern Muslim minority who may vote much more like their counterparts across the North, thus being competitive between Tinubu and Abubakar.
Rating: LEAN OBI — The combination of key endorsements and Obi’s strength among northern Christians leads us to lean Plateau towards the Labour Party nominee. While Abubakar will probably breach 25% without difficulty, it is an open question if Tinubu will reach the same goal.
South-East
Similarly to the North-West, the South-East has not been truly competitive in decades having voted for the PDP in every presidential election since the return of democracy in 1999. 2023 seems to be keeping the streak of noncompetitiveness, but for a new party as the Obi wave has swept across the region. Southeastern PDP support has crumbled amid controversy over Abubakar’s nomination and years of party infighting. Tinubu’s outlook is even worse as Buhari is more unpopular here than anywhere else in the nation. Obi will win the region, but two large questions remain: can Obi drive up the oft-lacklustre southeastern turnout and can he win by a large enough margin to force Abubakar and Tinubu under the 25% threshold in all five states.
Abia State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+41.65%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,120,808
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: In a theme that will be echoed throughout the South-East, three factors dominate the presidential election in Abia State: a divided PDP, an unpopular APC, and an ascendant LP. For the PDP—which has dominated Abia politics since the return to democracy in 1999, the state party was already beset by infighting before incumbent Governor Okezie Ikpeazu joined the G5 group of anti-Abubakar PDP governors. For Tinubu, the state APC chapter is also riddled with crisis and the Buhari administration is highly unpopular in the region. On the other hand, Obi’s candidacy in the LP has swept the region according to recent polls, with a Nextier poll on rural communities in Abia and Imo states showing Obi at 94%.
Rating: SAFE OBI — As a southeastern Igbo-majority state, Abia is expected to firmly fall in Obi’s column. However, those two large questions remain: can Obi drive up turnout and win by a large enough margin to force Abubakar and Tinubu under 25%.
Anambra State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+81.13%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,656,437
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Obi’s home state of Anambra is unlike all other states, as its governor—Charles Soludo—is not a member of either the APC or PDP, instead having been elected as a member of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (centre). Despite his party membership, Soludo is reportedly backing the PDP in an attempt to stem the rise of the Anambra LP and to build relationships within the PDP in case he later opts to join the party. Nevertheless, Obi is unchallenged as the most popular presidential candidate in the state as the Labour wave has swept the state and Obi has retained personal support from his tenure as state governor. Anambra, like the rest of the South-East, poses a clear challenge for Tinubu as he faces the joint challenge of working with an incredibly divided state chapter and being tied to the unpopular Buhari administration.
Rating: SAFE OBI — Anambra would be safely for Obi even if he was not its former Governor. His tenure as the state’s highest elected official cements the rating and calls into question if Abubakar or Tinubu will manage to reach 25% of the vote.
Ebonyi State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+46.74%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,597,646
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Similar to the rest of the South-East, Ebonyi State features a bitterly divided PDP, unpopular APC, and ascendant LP. Despite the state’s longtime status as a safely PDP state, incumbent Governor Dave Umahi has been a APC member since his defection from the PDP in 2020. Despite this office, the APC is still regionally unpopular while the LP is rising to the point that the governor’s security forces detained his LP senatorial opponent for over a month. Abubakar will be hurt by the prolonged crisis of the state PDP along with similar anti-opposition tactics employed by Umahi.
Rating: SAFE OBI — Like the rest of South-East, Ebonyi will be won by Obi with the main question surrounding how large will his margin of victory be. Abubakar and Tinubu will both hope to get 25% but it could prove difficult due to the state PDP crisis and the APC’s regional unpopularity, respectively.
Enugu State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+46.74%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,112,793
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: In the same story as the rest of the South-East, Enugu has been overcome by fervorous Obi momentum while the two traditional major parties tear themselves apart. Abubakar is hurt by the completely split Enugu PDP with incumbent Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi being a member of the anti-Abubakar G5 group, while prominent PDP Senator Chimaroke Nnamani is vocally supporting Tinubu. Tinubu would already be dragged down by the unpopular Buhari, but the bitter state APC crisis could counteract the potential benefits of the support of Nnamani and other state politicians.
Rating: SAFE OBI — Even without a rebelling PDP governor, Enugu would likely go to Obi but now the state joins other southeastern states with the main question being how much will Obi win by. Abubakar and Tinubu will both hope to get 25% but it will be difficult due to their respective issues.
Imo State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+38.01%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,419,922
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Rinse and repeat, as Imo is another prime example of a despised APC and a divided PDP being overtaken by the “Obidient” wave. Incumbent Governor Hope Uzodinma (APC) was lucked into office by a questionable Supreme Court ruling in 2020, but the state APC has not gained much support during his tenure as it is wrecked by infighting and the state has become unsafe. While the Imo PDP cannot be blamed for insecurity, it is just as split as the state APC due to a similar years-long internal power struggle. Aside from the PDP crisis, Abubakar faces the same issues with zoning here while Obi is boosted by ethnic, regional, and religious sentiment along with desire for change from a state that has been wrecked by violence and corruption.
Rating: SAFE OBI — Like the rest of South-East, Imo State is prohibitively likely to be won by Obi. Abubakar and Tinubu will both hope to get 25%
South-South
Similar to the South-East, every state in the South-South has voted for the PDP in every presidential election since the return of democracy in 1999. However, Obi is strongly challenging for the South-South as regional PDP support has crumbled due to the zoning controversy over Abubakar’s nomination and debilitating internal infighting. Tinubu has low prospects here but is aiming reach the 25% threshold.
Akwa Ibom State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+38.08%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,357,418
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: As in the rest of the South-South, the incumbent Governor will play an important role in the election in Akwa Ibom. Governor Udom Emmanuel is the chairman of the Abubakar campaign council and is reportedly well-liked in the state. However, Akwa Ibom has not been immune to the South-South Obi wave, especially in urban areas. The Labour Party campaign in the state has also incorporated Obi’s wife Margaret, a native of Akwa Ibom. Meanwhile, the state APC is so dysfunctional that it is unable to field a gubernatorial candidate.
Rating: LEAN OBI — Although Emmanuel is a key part of the Abubakar campaign and the state (like the rest of the region) has a long history of voting strongly for the PDP, we are giving Obi the edge due to his regional strength and urban support. Abubakar should reach 25% while that number is unlikely for Tinubu.
Bayelsa State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+24.58%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,196,566
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Like the rest of the South-South, Bayelsa State was a strongly pro-PDP state for most of the Fourth Republic. However, the APC has risen since 2019, even winning that year’s gubernatorial election before its ticket was later disqualified. This year, both the PDP’s longtime strength and the APC’s recent rise have been threatened by internal party divisions in addition to the Obi campaign’s growing popularity across the region. Obi is polling very well across the South-South and Bayelsa specifically has a high percentage of poll respondents that say that religion will be a factor in their vote; as a heavily Christian state, that helps Obi. At the same time, the LP’s wider issues in reaching out to non-urban voters is exacerbated in Bayelsa, a state where many riverine towns and villages are only accessible by boat.
Rating: LEAN OBI — Despite a growing state APC and Bayelsa’s long PDP history, we are giving Obi the slight edge due to his regional strength and the traditional parties’ internal divisions. Both Abubakar and Tinubu will expect to reach the 25% threshold though, with Abubakar far more likely to ultimately breach it.
Cross River State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+42.30%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,766,466
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Unlike the rest of the South-South, Cross River State has an APC Governor—Benedict Ayade. However, Ayade was elected as a member of the PDP and only decamped to the APC in 2021. While he is supporting Tinubu, the Buhari administration is unpopular in the region and Ayade is also reportedly unpopular in his own right. For Abubakar, he runs into the same problem that the PDP faces nationwide as intense infighting from both state PDP disputes and G5-aligned rebels has greatly hurt the state party. These factors coupled with urban youth support and overall regional strength have greatly benefited Obi with the Nextier poll on rural communities showing him at 67% in Cross River and Edo states.
Rating: LIKELY OBI — While we cannot rule out the possibility of an Abubakar victory, it looks like Obi is likely to win Cross River State. The unpopularity and dysfunction of the traditional two parties in the state makes it prime for an Obi victory. Both Abubakar and Tinubu could get 25% but it could prove difficult, especially for Tinubu.
Delta State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+44.92%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 3,221,697
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Unlike for Tinubu, Abubakar’s running mate has not guaranteed his state for his principal. Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, the PDP vice presidential nominee, is reportedly unpopular at a time that Obi has momentum in the South-South and Tinubu is accruing important state endorsements. While Tinubu is relying on the support of his surrogates—mainly Senator Ovie Omo-Agege and former militant Tompolo, converging factors (Delta’s sizeable Igbo population, urban youth support in large cities, and overall regional displeasure with the PDP) are helping Obi.
Rating: TOSSUP — Right now, there is not enough information to predict who will win Delta State, with Okowa’s incumbency and Obi’s regional strength closely matching each other. What is known is that both Abubakar and Obi will get over 25%, while the same cannot be guaranteed for Tinubu but is attainable.
Edo State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+1.40%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,501,081
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: For Tinubu, his most notable Edo surrogate is former Governor Adams Oshiomhole but Oshiomhole’s influence has waned since his feud with current Governor Godwin Obaseki in 2019 and 2020. Although Oshiomhole successfully pushed Obaseki out of the APC, Obaseki promptly joined the PDP and defeated Oshiomhole’s anointed candidate to win re-election in 2020. However, this win did not guarantee continued state PDP strength as the state party quickly devolved into an extreme crisis that continues to this day and has affected its support for Abubakar. These factors along with urban youth support and overall regional strength have greatly benefited Obi with the Nextier poll on rural communities showing him at 67% in Cross River and Edo states.
Rating: LIKELY OBI — Although both Abubakar and Tinubu have reasons to be positive in a Edo state, our current estimates show Obi is likely to win Edo State. The unpopularity and dysfunction of the traditional two parties in the state makes it prime for an Obi victory. Nonetheless, both Abubakar and Tinubu could obtain 25%.
Rivers State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+50.34%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 3,537,190
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: As the state of Governor Nyesom Wike (PDP)—the leader of the anti-Abubakar rebellion in the PDP—his long search for a candidate to endorse dominated coverage of the Rivers State election for the entire campaign. By October 2022, it was clear that Wike would not reconcile with Abubakar, and ever since, disturbing reports surfaced of police harassment against Abubakar supporters including the notable imprisonment of twenty Abubakar surrogates. After several meetings with both Obi and Tinubu, it looks like Wike has cozied up to the latter in recent weeks; however, his tacit or explicit endorsement is unlikely to be enough to completely sway the state’s election to Tinubu. Like in the rest of the South-South, the APC is unpopular in Rivers while the LP is rapidly growing (especially in the Obi support bases of urban youths, ethnic Igbos, and educated professionals along with some churchgoers). Rivers also is a prime example of government failure in Nigeria as a wealthy oil-exporting state that lacks steady electricity for its people; this is another boost to the anti-establishment Obi campaign.
Rating: LIKELY OBI — Although both Abubakar and Tinubu have a case to be made for themselves to have good showings in Rivers, the dysfunctional mess of the two traditional parties and high number of Obi-supporting demographics makes it likely that he will carry the state. Despite this, both Abubakar and Tinubu could obtain 25%, with Abubakar more likely to breach the threshold.
South-West
As a key part of Buhari’s winning coalition in 2015 and 2019 along with its longtime status as the Tinubu’s godfathering stomping ground, initial expectations were that Tinubu would win the South-West by a significant margin. However, as the campaign waged on, it became clear that those large Tinubu margins look unlikely to manifest on Election Day as Obi and Abubakar make inroads into the region.
Ekiti State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+17.11%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 987,647
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Being one of two states that held gubernatorial elections last year, we have recent (albeit downballot) statewide results from Ekiti. After years of a PDP crisis and an extremely contentious primary, the state PDP divided in 2022 as gubernatorial primary runner-up Segun Oni joined the SDP to become its nominee while the rest of the party lined up behind PDP nominee Bisi Kolawole, who was supported by the influential former Governor Ayo Fayose. This division cost the PDP any chance of genuinely contesting the election as Oni’s 23% and Kolawole’s 19% came nowhere near Oyebanji’s 53%. Now, in 2023, the state PDP is still very divided with Fayose—a G5 ally—and his allies reportedly supporting Tinubu while his intraparty rivals back Abubakar. Even if the PDP somehow got its politicians in line, Abubakar would face an uphill climb to overcome Tinubu’s extensive network throughout the state along with APC incumbency/party structure and ethnic Yoruba identity politics. Meanwhile, Obi lacks major endorsements or a large urban area to target, but he has gained momentum in the South-West according to polling.
Rating: SAFE TINUBU — The combination of a chronically divided state PDP and the home region boost for Tinubu should allow him to easily win Ekiti. While Abubakar will likely be confident in achieving 25%, it is not guaranteed with Obi’s positioning unknown.
Lagos State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+12.19%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 7,060,195
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Unlike Abubakar and Obi, Tinubu does not have a clear grasp on his own home state. Despite his moniker of the “Godfather of Lagos,” Tinubu’s strength in the state has waned in recent years as APC unpopularity has risen. Obi has exploited that fact and looks to be carrying several key demographics that are common in Lagos, namely: educated professionals, non-indigenes originally from the South-East or South-South, urban youths, and attendees of the city’s many megachurches. On the other hand, Tinubu has retained support in his bases of market women, artisans, and other working-class, mainly-Yoruba professions. Ethnic politics has also dominated the campaign with Tinubu targeting his own indigenous Yoruba group while Obi has strength among Igbo non-indigenes. Stears’ poll and predictive model puts Obi ahead in the state; however, one of the largest parts of his Lagosian coalition—non-indigenes—have been the target of mass voter suppression and electoral violence in the state for years. The potential for manipulation on Election Day has led to a lot of uncertainty over the possible end result.
Rating: TOSSUP — It is not clear who will ultimately win Lagos State, especially when factoring in potential voter suppression; Tinubu and Obi both have a strong case from their competing support bases. For Abubakar, his focus is reaching 25% in the state as Obi has taken most formerly PDP-supporting voter blocs.
Ogun State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+15.44%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 2,688,305
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Medium Risk
Summary: Unlike neighboring Lagos State, Ogun is not dominated by the nation’s preeminent city and the APC seems to be holding up better here as a result . Although Abubakar and Obi have reasonable levels of support, the state PDP internal crisis and the LP’s difficulties in reaching non-urban voters have hurt both candidates. Although the state APC is also beset by internal squabbles, these fights have not greatly affected Tinubu’s Ogun campaign as both factions still support him. Tinubu has also employed ethnic identity in his campaigning, claiming that ‘it is the Yorubas’ turn [for the presidency]’ in a speech in the state capital of Abeokuta. The main potential detriments to the APC are the unpopularity of Buhari and Obi’s popularity in urban areas (mainly in Abeokuta and in Lagos suburbs). Obi will also receive a boost from the endorsement of former President Olesegun Obasanjo, an Ogun native.
Rating: LIKELY TINUBU — Despite reasons for potential growth for Abubakar and Obi, we consider it likely that Tinubu will win Ogun State. Like other states in the South-west, the most important thing will likely be the margin that Tinubu wins by and whether he can prevent his opponents from getting 25%; both Abubakar and Obi have a good chance of meeting the threshold.
Ondo State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+6.14%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,991,344
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: Low Risk
Summary: Like most of the rest of the South-West, Ondo State swung away from Buhari in 2019. However, it was one of only two southwestern states to swing enough that Abubakar won it back for the PDP for the first time since 2011. But a lot has changed in four years, as the state PDP is riddled with crisis and a faction has sided with the anti-Abubakar G5. Like the rest of the South-West, Tinubu has ethnic identity on his side as the state is majority-Yoruba. In addition, state governor Rotimi Akeredolu is a close ally. Obi’s positioning is rather unknown here as he lacks prominent allies or a major metropolitan area that has boosted his campaign in other states, but Ondo has significant non-Yoruba minorities that may
Rating: LIKELY TINUBU — Despite traditionally being the most competitive state in the South-West, divides within the state PDP make it difficult to see Tinubu losing Ondo. Once again, the margin will be of great significance as Tinubu and his allies will want to push Abubakar and Obi under 25% here. Abubakar should reach that number but Obi may find it more difficult.
Osun State
2019 Result: Buhari (APC)+1.43%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 1,954,800
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Like Ekiti, Osun held its gubernatorial election last year, with Ademola Adeleke (PDP) unseating incumbent Gboyega Oyetola (APC)—who happens to be a relative of Tinubu. Although that election has entered litigation as Oyetola contests the results, it was still a remarkable victory for the PDP. Nevertheless, Tinubu has considerable strength and many allies in Osun State in addition to being buoyed by ethnic sentiment. Meanwhile, Obi lacks major endorsements or a large urban area to target, but he has gained momentum in the South-West according to polling and is targeting his young base.
Rating: LIKELY TINUBU — The split opposition and Tinubu’s local connections should allow him to win Osun State. While Abubakar will likely be confident in achieving 25% with the backing of Adeleke, it is not guaranteed with Obi’s positioning unknown.
Oyo State
2019 Result: Abubakar (PDP)+0.17%
Total Registered Voters (2023): 3,276,675
YIAGA Election Manipulation Risk Index: High Risk
Summary: Just like Ondo State, Oyo swung hard enough against Buhari that Abubakar won it back for the PDP for the first time since 2011. That narrow PDP win was also notably repeated in the next month’s gubernatorial race. However, now the state PDP is divided as Governor Seyi Makinde is a G5 member who refuses to support Abubakar. This has buoyed his opponents as Tinubu has been put in prime position to win back the state due to ethnic identity politics and key endorsements. Like in the rest of the South-West, Obi appears to be receiving support from his base of urban young people (especially in the city of Ibadan).
Rating: LEAN TINUBU — Despite 2019’s close race, the state PDP split has pushed us to predict Tinubu is slightly more likely to win Oyo. The margin will be key as Tinubu and his allies will want to push Abubakar and Obi under 25% here. However, both Abubakar and Obi should reach that benchmark.
