On 12 April 2025, Gabonese voters will head to the polls to vote in the first set of general elections since the overthrow of ex-President Ali Bongo Ondimba (PDG, centre), whose family had been in power continuously for the previous 56 years. It also comes just months after a constitutional referendum held in November 2024 which saw a vote overwhelmingly in favor of adopting the new text.
Background
Ali Bongo’s father Omar Bongo ruled Gabon as the country’s second president after the death of his predecessor and first president of Gabon Leon M’ba (PDG, centre). The elder Bongo would maintain his post as president until his death in 2009 when he was succeeded by his son Ali. At the time of Ali’s ascension to the presidency, the younger Bongo won the subsequent election with around 42% of the vote in one round of voting. In his first re-election bid in 2016, Bongo won by a slim margin against his main rival Jean Ping (UFC, *). Allegations of fraud were rampant as Bongo’s home province officially saw a nearly 99% turnout, with 95% of the votes cast in favor of Bongo. The court ruling confirming Bongo’s victory would further sow distrust in both Bongo and the Gabonese political system.
This political controversy would come to a head in January 2019 after a coup attempt launched by the military against Bongo’s government. After the putsch failed, Bongo became increasingly erratic and isolated key members of the Gabonese political establishment. In October 2018, Bongo suffered a stroke which caused him to leave the country for medical treatment and spend the next five months outside Gabon. In the years after, Bongo’s influence on the country’s politics would gradually weaken. When Bongo ran for a third term in 2023 and won according to official results, the Gabonese military launched a coup d’etat against Bongo just minutes after the announcement — the second successful coup since independence.
The military’s putsch aimed at removing what they called an “irresponsible, unpredictable government” saw protests break out in support of the putschists. Bongo’s opulent lifestyle, closeness with the French government, political history, and personal image as that of a “prince” much like his father all contributed to his removal from office.
The Transition and Constitution
Within days, the junta appointed Colonel Brice Nguema to take up the post of transitional President. Though parliamentary elections had also been held alongside the presidential one scheduled for 2023, the results were quickly and are to this day not publicly available, presumably because the second round of the legislative elections was never held. In April 2024, the transitional government announced a national dialogue aimed at drafting a new constitution, a referendum on which was held in November of that year and saw 91% favor the new draft.
The approved constitution came with several stipulations. To run for president, candidates must be between the ages of 30 and 70 and be born to a Gabonese parent. The post of prime minister was abolished and an executive vice president became second-in-line of succession. The presidential term was reinstated to seven years, renewable only once. Finally, the presidential race would be decided in a runoff if no candidate achieved a majority of the vote in the first round of voting.
The latter stipulation was likely intended as a response to the failure of Bongo to win a majority in his first two elections. Such a majoritarian system could also increase the perceived legitimacy of the elected President. The two-round runoff system will continue to be used to elect the 143 deputies in the country’s National Assembly.
Complications
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the transition has not come without controversy. Not all NGOs and civil society groups were invited to take part in the transitional process. Further concerns have been raised about the centralization of power under the post of president. Finally, there is a provision in the draft constitution that bars members of the transition from running in the presidential race, besides Nguema himself.
On 3 March, Nguema made use of this exemption, announcing his candidacy for president. By 10 March, the interior ministry released a list of four candidates, including Nguema out of a total of 23 individuals that applied to contest the election. Notable among them was Jean Rémy Yama, an academic and president of the Dynamique Unitaire trade union federation. Yama was also an outspoken critic of the Bongo regime who, according to an assessment from the International Federation of Human Rights, was subjected to arbitrary detention by the government for over a year beginning in 2022.
The Elections
Of the three opposition candidates running in the election, two of them are formally independent. One of them, Stéphane Germain Iloko Boussengui, was a spokesperson for the Gabonese Democratic Party before the coup d’etat ousted Bongo in 2023. The other, Joseph Lapensée Essigone, was a lawyer and a tax collector before the coup.
Nguema’s main challenger according to Africanews is former Gabonese prime minister Alain-Claude Bilie By Nze. Though a prominent member of Bongo’s administration, By Nze has sought to distance himself from his former association with the Bongo government, founding a new, pro-business party called Together For Gabon (centre-right). Simultaneously he has been a critic of Ngeuma’s administration, though relatively muted, has asserted that Nguema took power “without a real project” and that the transition had not lived up to its promises.
Though parliamentary elections were last held in 2023, the last election where parliamentarians took their seats was in 2018. As of this writing, there is little information about which active political parties will be contesting the legislative races.
Conclusion
Going into the elections, the favorite to win the presidential race is Nguema, by far. Not only does Nguema command the support of the military, but he also has substantial support from much of the population for removing Bongo and conducting a crackdown on corruption, as well as promised reforms to the political process. Though the constitution provides for one, there likelihood that the election will go to a runoff is relatively low.
Nguema’s seeming popularity among the public suggests that he could win a free and fair election, despite widespread expectations that the elections will not meet these standards. However, the true test will be whether he fulfills his promises of a democratic transition and establishes a government that genuinely reflects the aspirations of the Gabonese public.
