Since entering office after a coup removed longtime leader Robert Mugabe in 2017, Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency has been marked by economic struggles, political factionalism, and (now) concerted efforts to extend his tenure beyond the two-term limit.

While Mnangagwa has repeatedly stated that he will step down in 2028, his allies have finally gone public with a long-rumored push for a constitutional amendment to keep him in office until 2030 in the “ED2030” campaign. The move has sparked resistance within and outside the ruling ZANU-PF (left-wing), raising serious concerns about what remains of Zimbabwe’s democratic institutions and the potential for internal strife.

The Push for a Term Extension

Soon after his disputed re-election in 2023, reports revealed that Mnangagwa was considering an attempt to extend his term in office. Despite his denials, analysts argue that several moves early in his second term — including dubious recalls of opposition lawmakers which yielded a ZANU-PF supermajority and moves to place Mnangagwa loyalists in key military positions — were elements of the term extension plan.

The ED2030 (ED for Emmerson Dambudzo) campaign publicly kicked off in October 2024, when the ZANU-PF national conference passed a motion to formally back extending Mnangagwa’s term to 2030. However, Zimbabwe’s constitution presents significant legal hurdles to such a move. Section 328 (7) stipulates that even if term limits are changed, the changes cannot apply to the incumbent officeholder. This means that ZANU-PF would have to not only amend the term limits but also repeal this clause — a process that requires both parliamentary approval and a national referendum. While parliamentary assent will likely be simple due to the ZANU-PF supermajority and allies in the nominal “opposition,” confusion over whether a referendum could be organized quickly has led to speculation that the party would work around this process by seeking a Constitutional Court ruling to either extend Mnangagwa’s term or rule term limits unconstitutional.

Despite the constitutional complexities, ZANU-PF leadership appears determined to push forward. The party conference resolution’s passage was followed by amendment drafts in parliament and a charm offensive by high-ranking ZANU-PF members, campaigning that Mnangagwa’s continued leadership was necessary for the nation’s long-term development plan, Vision 2030. Mnangagwa allies, like justice minister Ziyambi Ziyambi, also attempted to dismiss legal complications and project party unity in support of the term extension. On the other hand, opposition voices argue that amending the constitution would set a dangerous precedent and further erode Zimbabwe’s democratic norms.

Internal Pushback

The push for a third term is not without its detractors within ZANU-PF. Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, a key figure in the 2017 coup that ousted Robert Mugabe and brought Mnangagwa to power, has opposed the move. Chiwenga’s reluctance stems partly from his own ambitions; when Mnangagwa assumed power, there was reportedly an agreement that he would serve only one term before stepping aside for Chiwenga. Mnangagwa already reneged on that deal to run for re-election in 2023 and as Mnangagwa’s second term progresses, Chiwenga and his allies — including influential war veteran groups and the nation’s Catholic Church hierarchy — have increasingly voiced their discontent with any attempt to extend the presidential term.

The military, which played a decisive role in bringing Mnangagwa to power, also presents a major obstacle. Many senior military figures are disillusioned with Mnangagwa’s administration, reportedly due to corruption and economic mismanagement. Reports suggest that military officials have privately warned Mnangagwa against attempting to stay in power beyond his constitutionally mandated term. Some within the armed forces believe that the deaths of several high-ranking officers under Mnangagwa’s rule were politically motivated, further fueling distrust, especially as Mnangagwa has spent years placing allies in the security sector.

Economic and Political Consequences

Economic instability is another factor complicating Mnangagwa’s bid for a third term. The collapse of the new national currency — the gold-backed Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) — has exacerbated economic hardship, with the vast majority of transactions still being conducted in U.S. dollars. Financial analysts predict further instability if political uncertainty continues, particularly as investors grow wary of potential unrest surrounding a constitutional amendment.

Furthermore, the international community is closely watching Zimbabwe’s political trajectory. Western nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have linked Zimbabwe’s potential return to a standard relationship with global institutions like the IMF, Commonwealth of Nations, and World Bank to governance reforms. Extending Mnangagwa’s rule could further isolate Zimbabwe and return it to the status of an international pariah.

The Road Ahead

As ZANU-PF gears up to nominate a presidential candidate in 2027, the battle over Mnangagwa’s potential third term is likely to intensify. The opposition remains weak following the hijacking of the main opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (liberal), but civil society, church organizations, and former Mugabe-era loyalists are beginning to coalesce against the move. A broad alliance — including elements within ZANU-PF, the military, and opposition forces along with Vice President Chiwenga — may be the only viable force capable of blocking the constitutional amendment.

While Mnangagwa has publicly stated that he intends to step down in 2028, his actions suggest otherwise. His recent security appointments, particularly the promotion of loyalist Lovemore Matuke to State Security Minister, indicate an effort to consolidate power and silence dissent within the party and military. If Mnangagwa pursues the term extension, Zimbabwe will likely face significant political turbulence, with the military, opposition forces, and civil society poised to resist such a move.

The prospect of Mnangagwa securing a third term remains uncertain, but the political landscape in Zimbabwe is shifting. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether ZANU-PF succeeds in altering the constitution or whether internal and external opposition forces can prevent the move. What is clear is that Zimbabwe’s fragile democracy faces another major test, and the outcome of this battle will shape the country’s future for years to come.